Former U.S. President Donald Trump is hoping to secure up to $1 trillion in new investments from Saudi Arabia. But experts say the country’s own economic goals may stand in his way. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) is pushing ahead with massive plans to transform the kingdom’s economy. These plans could cost the country nearly $2 trillion, according to estimates collected by Bloomberg News.
Saudi Arabia’s Big Spending Plans at Home
The Saudi government is working to reduce its dependence on oil. To do that, Crown Prince MBS has launched a number of costly projects. These include building a high-tech city called Neom, which alone could cost over $1.5 trillion, according to U.S. State Department estimates. Originally, Neom was expected to cost $500 billion when it was announced in 2017. But since then, the budget has grown fast.
Other expensive projects include preparations to host the World Expo 2030, the FIFA World Cup 2034, and the AFC Asian Cup 2027. One part of Neom, known as Trojena, is being developed to include ski slopes for the 2029 Asian Winter Olympics. These international events will require massive spending, although exact numbers are not available. Economists say the total cost could reach into the hundreds of billions.
Budget Pressure and Growing Debt
Saudi Arabia once had large cash reserves from oil exports. But that has changed. Today, lower oil prices and higher domestic spending have reversed the flow of money. The country is now running a budget deficit. Its $940 billion Public Investment Fund (PIF) is under pressure. The fund is cutting budgets, borrowing more, and slowing down parts of its projects.
Because of this, experts believe Saudi Arabia won’t be able to meet Trump’s request for a $1 trillion investment deal. “Saudi Arabia has become an importer of capital,” said Ziad Daoud, chief emerging markets economist at Bloomberg Economics. “Even with high oil prices, the kingdom’s current account balance has gone negative.”
This means that the country is spending more than it is earning from exports. This situation is expected to last until at least 2030.
Trump’s Visit and Investment Talks
Donald Trump is expected to arrive in Riyadh on May 13. He hopes to announce big investment numbers and business deals. But experts say any major figures shared during the visit may not mean real money flowing into the U.S. anytime soon.
“A $1 trillion trade and investment deal over four years is unlikely,” said Tim Callen, a scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. “That would match the full size of Saudi Arabia’s investment fund and almost a year’s worth of its GDP.”
Even though Crown Prince MBS has previously helped Trump by increasing oil production to lower gas prices in the U.S., that may not be enough. Trump, who is known for a transactional approach to foreign policy, is likely expecting more.
Business Deals Still Likely, but Not at $1 Trillion
Sources say that Saudi government officials are contacting local companies to gather information about their business plans with the U.S. Large contracts, especially in areas tied to MBS’s economic vision, may go to American firms. These include deals in energy, technology, tourism, and infrastructure.
However, these deals may not be new. Many were already in motion. Still, they could give Trump big numbers to present to the public as he campaigns for the presidency again.
Rachel Ziemba, an expert at the Center for a New American Security, says the real goal might be to show strong ties and future plans, rather than actual cash. “We will probably see a mix of proposals, future purchases, and talk about working together on AI, energy, and investment,” she said.
The Saudi government has not commented on the issue.
A Changing Economic Role for Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia’s changing economic situation is reshaping its place in the global economy. The country is moving from being a large investor abroad to focusing more on domestic development. This shift makes it harder for foreign leaders like Trump to expect major cash deals.
Still, Saudi Arabia needs to maintain good relations with the U.S. It relies on American companies for military support and wants to grow in sectors like artificial intelligence, finance, logistics, and tourism.
Even if the $1 trillion goal is unlikely, both countries may agree on broader cooperation. That includes reducing trade barriers and increasing future investments. But most experts agree: the headlines may sound big, but real changes will be slower and smaller.
