Investment bank Goldman Sachs says bond market signals suggest a 70% probability of a peace agreement in Ukraine. This marks a sharp rise in expectations following the U.S. presidential election.
Market Optimism Grows for Ukraine Peace Deal
April 8, 2025 | Wallstreet Updates – U.S. investment bank Goldman Sachs has reported that markets are increasingly optimistic about a peace deal in Ukraine. According to a research note sent to clients, bond pricing shows that investors now believe there is a 70% chance of a peace agreement, a notable jump from under 50% before the November 2024 U.S. election.
The analysis comes amid rising hopes that diplomatic efforts could finally bring an end to the three-year-long war. While the optimism is growing, Goldman Sachs also pointed out that expectations had briefly peaked at 76% in February before dipping slightly.
“Our modeling suggests that current market pricing for a peace deal has risen from below 50 percent prior to U.S. elections to around 70 percent at present,” Goldman Sachs noted.
Trump Administration Pushes for Peace
President Donald Trump, who returned to the White House in January 2025, has emphasized his desire to stop what he has described as the ongoing “bloodbath” in Ukraine. His administration views the conflict as a proxy war between the United States and Russia, and he has pledged to work toward ending it.
Trump has repeatedly stated that he wants to be remembered as a peacemaker, and top aides have been exploring diplomatic options. Reports suggest that back-channel talks between U.S. and Russian officials have taken place in recent months, though no official deal has been announced.
“This war needs to stop. It’s bad for Ukraine, for Russia, and for the world,” Trump said at a recent press conference.
Putin Signals Conditional Support
Russian President Vladimir Putin has expressed conditional support for a U.S.-proposed ceasefire. Speaking last month, he said Moscow agrees in principle but insisted that certain critical conditions must be met before halting the fighting.
“We support a ceasefire, but only after key issues are clarified,” Putin told Russian media.
Putin has not detailed all of these conditions, but analysts believe they include security guarantees for Russian-held territories and recognition of current territorial control.
Zelenskyy Rejects Russian Demands
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has strongly opposed Putin’s conditions, calling them unrealistic and accusing Russia of using ceasefire talks as a smokescreen.
“Russia’s so-called peace terms are designed to keep the war going, not end it,” Zelenskyy told reporters.
Zelenskyy continues to demand a complete Russian withdrawal from occupied regions and insists that Ukraine’s sovereignty must be respected.
Russian Control Remains a Major Hurdle
As of April 2025, Russia controls nearly 20% of Ukrainian territory, including:
- Crimea, annexed in 2014
- Large parts of four regions—Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson—which Russia now claims as part of its territory
These claims are not recognized by Ukraine or most of the international community. The contested regions remain the biggest roadblock to peace.
Financial Markets Reflect Geopolitical Hopes
Goldman Sachs analysts used bond yield curves and risk premiums to assess market expectations. A higher probability of peace often lowers risk premiums in emerging markets and reduces commodity price volatility.
The firm warned, however, that such market optimism is not a guarantee of a real-world agreement.
“Markets can be forward-looking, but geopolitical risks are inherently unpredictable,” the report added.
Global Impact of a Peace Deal
A ceasefire in Ukraine could have major global effects, including:
- Lower energy prices due to stabilized oil and gas supplies
- Improved investor confidence in Eastern Europe
- Reduced military spending by NATO countries
- Stronger food security as Ukrainian grain exports resume at full scale
Countries such as Germany, France, and Turkey have urged both sides to return to the negotiating table. The United Nations has also reiterated its support for a diplomatic solution.
Despite growing confidence in the markets, the path to peace remains complex. Differences between Ukraine and Russia on territorial issues, reparations, and NATO expansion continue to fuel tensions.
Still, with high-level diplomacy underway and renewed political will from Washington, analysts believe 2025 could be a turning point in the conflict.
