Russia and China are facing growing leadership risks as both countries centralize power in the hands of their leaders—Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. This shift, occurring over the last few decades, has weakened the institutions that traditionally managed leadership transitions. Both nations are now vulnerable to potential succession crises that could trigger domestic instability and have significant international repercussions.
China’s Power Centralization and the Threat of Crisis
Under Xi Jinping, China has moved away from the collective leadership model that Deng Xiaoping put in place. This shift has fundamentally changed how leadership transitions are handled in the country. Xi’s removal of term limits for the presidency and his purging of rivals have given him unprecedented control over China’s Communist Party (CCP), state, and military.
Historically, Deng’s reforms created a system of collective leadership, where power was distributed, and successor leadership was decided through established rules. However, Xi has disrupted this model, leaving the CCP without a clear heir. Without a consensus-based mechanism for selecting a new leader, any unexpected departure of Xi—due to age, health, or political pressures—could cause factional infighting, destabilizing the party.
Experts have warned that such a vacuum could lead to internal unrest and global uncertainties, particularly as China plays an increasingly influential role in world affairs. If leadership instability arises, it could disrupt China’s policies on major international issues, such as its Belt and Road Initiative and territorial disputes in the region.
Putin’s Personalized Power and the Risk of Succession Turmoil
Russia faces similar challenges, with Vladimir Putin’s personalized regime dominating the country’s political landscape for over two decades. Putin’s power is maintained through the loyalty of a close-knit circle of allies, including family members, and the elimination of potential political rivals. This system lacks the robust institutional checks seen in other regimes.
Unlike China’s more bureaucratic political structure, Russia’s system has few mechanisms to manage leadership transitions. The invasion of Ukraine has only further complicated the political environment in Moscow, heightening internal power struggles.
Should Putin unexpectedly leave office, whether through resignation, death, or being ousted, the absence of a clear succession plan could create chaos. Rival factions could fight for control, potentially destabilizing Russia both politically and economically. Moreover, Putin’s reliance on personal networks has created a climate of distrust, eroding the regime’s stability.
Comparative Dynamics: A Shared Risk of Leadership Crises
Though the political systems of China and Russia differ, both share a common risk: the concentration of power in the hands of a single leader. In China, Xi’s break from collective leadership means that no clear successor has emerged, while in Russia, Putin’s personalized rule has led to a fragile power structure dependent on loyalty rather than competence.
The potential for a leadership vacuum in either country could have serious international consequences. In China, instability could result in unpredictable policy changes, affecting global markets and supply chains. Similarly, in Russia, the absence of a clear leader might trigger a power struggle, with significant implications for Europe and NATO, especially given Russia’s strategic influence in Eastern Europe and its nuclear arsenal.
Both countries rely on strong national narratives to legitimize their leadership. In China, Xi’s vision of national rejuvenation rests on the assumption of smooth leadership transitions. However, if a leadership crisis occurs, this fragile narrative could collapse. In Russia, Putin’s focus on restoring Russian greatness has created a cult of personality that could quickly unravel if political stability is disrupted.
Global Implications: The Risk of Instability
A leadership crisis in either China or Russia would have significant international ramifications. For China, such instability could threaten its growing economic influence and security posture. A power struggle could alter China’s foreign policy, particularly in regions with ongoing territorial disputes, such as Taiwan and the South China Sea.
In Russia, the potential for internal unrest could spill over into its geopolitical strategies. Any instability could embolden separatist movements within the country, especially in regions like Chechnya. Furthermore, with Russia’s vast nuclear arsenal, internal chaos could heighten the risk of regional security crises that could affect neighboring countries.
Possible Scenarios for the Future
Several outcomes are possible as China and Russia approach the 2030s:
- Smooth Transitions Through Elite Consensus: Although unlikely, it is possible that elites in both countries could reach a consensus to ensure a smooth leadership change. In China, this might involve a coalition that pushes Xi to name a successor. In Russia, power-sharing could emerge to avoid a violent struggle.
- Power Struggles and Internal Conflict: In the absence of clear succession plans, both countries could face intense internal competition if their leaders depart unexpectedly. In China, factionalism could destabilize governance, while in Russia, a power vacuum could lead to a coup or civil conflict.
- External Intervention: In extreme cases, international actors might intervene diplomatically to mediate leadership transitions. However, such involvement would likely be resisted by both China and Russia, given their sensitivities about sovereignty.
The centralized power of Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin has created vulnerabilities in both China and Russia. Without clear succession plans, both regimes risk severe leadership crises in the coming decades, which could destabilize their domestic systems and have far-reaching global consequences.
For the international community, this potential instability underscores the importance of preparing for periods of uncertainty. Policymakers must engage diplomatically with both China and Russia to encourage gradual reforms while also considering contingency plans for regional security.
As the balance of power continues to shift, the possibility of a leadership crisis in either country cannot be ignored. Such an event could significantly alter the global landscape, leading to unpredictable challenges for both nations and the world at large.
